Why We’re Working Harder and Spending More to Reach Fewer People with Todd Wilson

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Welcome back to another episode of the unSeminary podcast. Today we’re joined by Todd Wilson, co-founder of Exponential and a leader at Multipliers, where he helps churches and ministry leaders pursue multiplication and greater Kingdom impact. Todd has spent decades studying church planting, disciple-making, and movements, and his latest book, How Did We Get Here? Looking Back to Look Forward, explores the evolution of the American church growth movement and what it may mean for the future.

Are churches working harder while reaching fewer people? Have our systems become better at producing activity than disciples? Todd challenges leaders to examine the operating system beneath modern church ministry and consider what needs to change if we want to see true reproduction and multiplication.

• We have a disciple-making problem. // For years, Todd has championed the goal of seeing more churches reproduce. Research once showed that fewer than 5% of U.S. churches were reproducing, and while that number has improved, multiplication remains rare. But Todd believes church planting is ultimately an outcome of a deeper issue: most churches do not have a functional culture of disciple-making. If disciples aren’t reproducing disciples, churches will struggle to reproduce churches.
• Reproduction has to become generational. // Multiplication begins when reproduction continues beyond the first generation. One disciple makes another disciple, who then makes another, and the process keeps going. The same is true with churches. A church plants a church, which plants another church, which plants another. Once reproduction moves across multiple generations, addition becomes multiplication and the potential for movement begins to emerge.
• The church growth system has slowly changed. // Todd’s research traces roughly 75 years of church growth history, beginning with missionary Donald McGavran. McGavran originally studied why some churches on the mission field grew while others did not and developed principles aimed at helping missionaries reach more people. Over time, those ideas moved into the American church and blended with seeker-sensitive ministry, the megachurch movement, purpose-driven strategies, multisite, church planting networks, and other innovations. Much good came from these eras, but Todd believes the system gradually shifted toward institutional and programmatic growth.
• Good intentions can still create the wrong outcomes. // Todd is careful not to blame previous generations of church leaders. Many of the people who shaped modern church ministry were deeply evangelistic and sincerely wanted to reach people. Yet over time, the dominant definition of success increasingly became bigger attendance, larger programs, and expanding organizations. The unintended result is a consumer-driven model that can attract people effectively but struggles to produce disciples who reproduce.
• The angst leaders feel is real. // Todd hears a growing frustration among pastors: churches are spending more money, employing more staff, and working harder while seeing less fruit. Even churches that appear successful can sense something isn’t right beneath the surface. Todd believes much of that angst comes from trying to produce multiplication through an operating system designed primarily for addition. Naming the problem is an important first step toward changing it.
• Leaders must model what they want reproduced. // Todd believes transformation has to begin with senior leaders. If disciple-making is going to become the church’s growth engine, lead pastors and elders must personally participate in a simple, reproducible disciple-making process. Rather than merely preaching about discipleship, pastors should be able to name the people they are actively discipling and allow those relationships to shape the way they lead and teach.
• Keep the process simple and reproducible. // Whatever model a church chooses, Todd believes it must be simple enough for anyone to reproduce. The goal isn’t another sophisticated program but a way of following Jesus that can move naturally from person to person. The same approach should work for a lead pastor, a volunteer, or even a teenager. Simplicity increases the possibility of multiplication.
• Give the next generation permission to experiment. // Todd isn’t calling churches to abandon everything they’ve inherited. Instead, he encourages leaders to learn from the past, retain what is fruitful, and recognize that the current operating system may be losing effectiveness. Churches should create space for younger leaders to experiment, learn, and discover more reproducible approaches to disciple-making without being forced to preserve every assumption of previous generations.

To learn more about Todd Wilson, visit multipliers.org. You can also download a free PDF or audio version of How Did We Get Here? Looking Back to Look Forward at church-growth.org or pick up a paper copy on Amazon.com.

In addition, check out Todd Wilson’s conversation with Carey Nieuwhof, and the interview A Simple & Scalable Way to Reproduce Christians with David Putnam.

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Episode Transcript

Rich Birch — Hey friends, welcome to the unSeminary podcast. I am so glad that you have tuned in today for this reason, friends, lean in. um I want you to be a part of the conversation that we’re having today. The leader that we’ve got on the phone, on the I don’t know why say the phone because we have not been on phones for podcasts in, you know, 10 years, but on the line is really pressing on an issue that I know that a large portion, you know, almost 90 percent of the churches in the country need to be doing what we’re talking about today. And they’re not. And I really want you to lean in and learn from Todd Wilson.

Rich Birch — If you do not know Todd Wilson, he has been the founding and co-founding member of a number of faith-based organizations, including Exponential and Multipliers. He has designed a number, and been a part of the launch of a multiple of national church planting networks. He’s currently a team member, or team leader at Multipliers and serves leaders and ministries who are pursuing multiplication, helping them develop vision and strategy ultimately for a 100 X impact. You know that I love that.

Rich Birch — Recently, he wrote a book that caught my attention that I want to dive in on and kind of um unpack some of the core lessons for us today. It’s called, How Did We Get Here? Looking Back to Look Forward. And it’s really looking at the whole conversation, American church growth movement. Todd, welcome to the podcast. So glad you’re here.

Todd Wilson — Rich, it’s great to be here with you. I’m really looking forward to this conversation.

Rich Birch — Yeah, me too. So why don’t we start with kind of giving us a picture of Multipliers and the work that you’re focused on now, kind of set the context for us.

Todd Wilson — Sure. It’s probably good to have the context, you know, at at my core, my own personal calling. I am an entrepreneurial engineer at my core. I love to envision, envisage opportunities, seek strategies and opportunities of the future. And so where I like to do it anywhere, there’s potential for a hundred X kingdom impact. And that’s what gets me in trouble often is the, wherever there’s potential for a hundred X kingdom impact.

Todd Wilson — When I came out of the marketplace over 25 years ago into full-time ministry, the most natural hundred X place for me, in addition to being in the local church was, was church planting. I was just drawn to church planting. I got to spend almost 20 years, ah you know, leading Exponential and co-founding there.

Todd Wilson — And in recent years, really trying to get even more focused really on the 100x impact. I want to spend my next decade as I’m getting older here, you know, what’s it look like for every hour, for every dollar, for every bit of energy, to see 100x return.

Todd Wilson — And so the idea of Multipliers, and it’s a small team of us that, you know, we have a definite bias within the kingdom space to the disciple-making as the mission and engine of the church. And what’s it look like to get back to Jesus style disciple making. But then church planting and multiplication, what does it look like to be doing things that that are even capable of reproduction that can lead to multiplication and ultimately movement. So our goal is to just help champion at the personal level through personal calling, at the church level through disciple making and cultures of disciple making that can ultimately produce movements.

Todd Wilson — And so we are a champion and advocate for that.

Rich Birch — That’s fantastic. You and I are are similarly wired. And over the years, you know I’ve heard people talk about, you know, and they always they’ll do like a series at a church on spiritual gifts. And I’ve often wondered because of the kinds of things I’ve been involved in, if, you know, if I have some sort of apostolic gift, just because of the stuff I found myself doing and, you know, launching campuses and all that.

Rich Birch — And it’s interesting that gift over the years I’ve heard, which is similar to the kind of work you’ve been doing over the years is the only gift that I’ve ever noticed that preachers, they seem to talk down about it. And they’re like, stop starting things like, you know, they’re like, they always, you know, are like on the negative side of, you know, being the guy who wants to be entrepreneurial and see new things.

Rich Birch — And that’s a part of what I admire about you and the good work you’ve done. When you were at Exponential over those, you know, with you that you co-founded, you know, that almost 20 years, you know, they had this, they saw some amazing things happen there under your leadership, where this idea of moving church reproduction from under 5%, really trying to push us towards 16%.

Rich Birch — So for people that are unaware of this, I think this is good context to kind of take a step back and talk about why that number, why are we actually, why are you giving decades of your life towards this idea of trying to move towards 16%? What do we mean by that when you you know talk about that? Because I think that’s a good foundational idea for today’s conversation.

Todd Wilson — Yeah. I think it’s important it to understand, again, context for me. I didn’t grow up a Christian. I never had a dream to be in full-time vocational ministry. I’ve never wanted to be a lead pastor of anything. You know, ministry was the farthest thing from my mind growing up. When you’re asking kids, what do you want do when you grow up?

Todd Wilson — So when God brought me into full-time vocational ministry, and I’m going to say kicking and screaming, I wanted to go start a company. I wanted to go make money. I wanted to go change the world. And so coming into full-time vocational ministry, why in the world would I want to see anything except movements happening?

Rich Birch — That’s good.

Todd Wilson — We read about movements in the New Testament. Why do I want to be personally satisfied if God’s calling me into a new life of ministry with anything less than seeing movements?

Todd Wilson — And so that was my context of stepping in and and leading at Exponential and what was driving us. And your question from 5% to 16%. Well, Houston, we have a problem.

Todd Wilson — If movements are multiplication, and multiplication is generational reproduction, and we, at the time we were starting Exponential, there were less than 5% of U.S. churches were reproducing. You just got to let that sink in.

Rich Birch — Yeah.

Todd Wilson — 95% of churches just 25 years ago, 95% of churches in the U.S. are not reproducing. It’s physically impossible, both mathematically and biblically, to see multiplication and ultimately movements if less than 5% of churches are reproducing.

Todd Wilson — So the answer to where’s the 5 to 16, for me personally, God’s called me into a new life and a new ministry. I don’t want to be satisfied with just status quo, but the state of the U.S. church is such that we physically can’t see 100x impact in the operating system of how things are working.

Todd Wilson — So the 5 to 16 was very simple. Let’s measure where we’re at. And so the 16% sociologists say that if you can get 16% of an audience acting a certain way, behaving a certain way, it will become normative for everyone else. I like to say, if you’re in a room and you start quacking like a duck to talk, if you can get 16% of the people in the audience quacking like a duck, then everybody’s going to communicate by quacking like a duck.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — And so it just became a conviction. Let’s move the needle from less than 5% to 16%. And then the language we would use is, at 16%, healthy church reproduction would become such a normative thing that we would see multiplication happening.

Todd Wilson — Now, the little bit of an elephant in the room before we move on, church planting is just the outcome. So that 5% number, it’s an outcome of the system and what’s happening.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — The more ornery number is that the national studies that we did on what percentage of U.S. churches have a disciple-making culture. That’s also less than 5%.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — So 95% of churches don’t have a functional mission of disciple-making, and that’s their normative growth engine through disciple-making. So in reality, we have a disciple-making problem, not a church-planting problem. And so those two became very tied together, as as will become evident as we have this interview.

Rich Birch — Yeah, absolutely. and And just can you define generational reproduction for folks that are listening in? When you when you when you say that, like, hey, we’re trying to move churches towards generational reproduction, kind of just unpack that a little bit more.

Todd Wilson — Yeah, let’s let’s start at the personal level of disciple-making. If one person makes a disciple of another person, you’ve got one generation. If that person goes on to make another disciple two generations, that person makes a disciple three generations. We see that biblically. We see that in the leadership pipeline with Paul, that you know we need to see disciples who make disciples who make disciples.

Todd Wilson — Once you get to the third or fourth generation of something reproducing itself, if you drew that on paper, one becomes two, two becomes four, four becomes eight, eight becomes 16. That is an exponential or a multiplication curve. So all you have to do to go from addition to multiplication is have healthy reproduction broad and wide multiple generations into the future.

Todd Wilson — Now we just take that to the church level, a church that plants a church that plants a church that plants a church broad and wide.

Todd Wilson — Now you’ve gone from one church to 16 churches. And now look at the collective attendance of those 16 churches. That’s what you call healthy growth. That’s what you call multiplication when you keep reproducing it over and over.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s so good. And there’s actually been progress against this. This is one of the things that I’ve loved as a person just sitting on the outside looking in as you and the team, you know, Dave and the broader Exponential community have really been hammering away at this. You know, we’re not at 16% yet, but we’re seeing progress, which is which is amazing.

Todd Wilson — Right. It’s in the studies that we did, and it’s been repeated a couple of times, the needle has moved to at least 7%. That may not sound like a lot, but if you go take the number of churches we’re talking about…

Rich Birch — Yes.

Todd Wilson — …and that needle moving from less than 5% to 7%. And we’re not taking credit for all that at Exponential.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — We’re getting to ride a wave that really started around 2000. Prior to 2000, denominations planted churches, not really churches or networks. We saw the birth of networks around 2000 in the U.S. It’s hard for people to realize, but like in the church planting world, groups like City to City and GlocalNet and Acts 29 and ARC and Church Multiplication Network and Stadia and New Thing Network, none of them existed.

Rich Birch — Right. Right.

Todd Wilson — Literally in a five-year time period, we saw the birth of all these church planting networks, and that happened to coincide with that we saw that need to start Exponential to serve those networks.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — So We we were a little bit the right group at the right place, advocating for the right thing.

Todd Wilson — And I do think that generally the the wonderful thing is that as that needle is starting to move and the visibility is getting more and more, the next generation wants it.

Rich Birch — Yes. Yeah, I would agree.

Todd Wilson — They want the scorecard of that. So I feel very optimistic that we’re still a ways away from 16%, but the needle is moving in the right direction.

Rich Birch — Yeah, I would echo that too. I think there is, um you know, one of the couple years ago, I had one of those ages in my life flip over with zero on the end that you kind of notice and you reflect back on life a little bit. And I would say one of the things I’ve noticed over, you know, almost 30 years of ministry is this issue is has become more normative. Like it’s it’s a part of the conversation. It’s not that everyone’s doing it, but it’s in the dialogue, which I think is is wonderful.

Rich Birch — Well, I, so you know, there’s, you interact with a lot of church leaders across the country. You interact with a lot of people, you have a pulse on a lot of, you know, what’s going on. And there’s a growing sense, you have flagged that there’s a growing sense among leaders that there’s just something wrong. It’s like, you know, there’s like a stink in the bottom of our, our, garbage that’s like, oh it’s a little bit stinky. It’s not like overwhelming, but we can’t put our finger on exactly what that is.

Rich Birch — They can’t necessarily name it, but we feel it. We kind of see that there’s maybe something in the way we’re doing what we’re doing that isn’t working. What are you hearing as you sit across the table from church leaders in across the country, you know, around all of these things that we’re talking about?

Todd Wilson — Let me describe it a couple of different ways. I think the the word I would put on it is an angst. I think if you look at the definition of an angst, there’s a there’s a growing and an underlying angst. um I’m going to say, if I’m descriptive of the angst, that might not be the way people would exactly say it but it’s how I translate what I’m hearing.

Todd Wilson — We are working a lot harder to reach less people and we don’t like the cultural Christian product we’re getting. We’re working a lot harder. We’re spending more money to reach fewer people. And we’re just having this angst that the product we’re producing is a little bit too much consumer cultural Christian as we’re working harder and spending more money. And that leaves somebody full time, know, if I mean, if you’re a full time vocational pastor, there’s an angst that sits in the middle of that dynamic going on.

Todd Wilson — My mentor and friend, Robert Lewis, who led Fellowship Bible Church in Little Rock for years, Robert’s handed off the leadership back in 2005. Robert describes it this way. He did the foreword on my recent book, and when he read and reviewed the book, he said, Todd, oh my goodness, this is first and foremost a walk down history lane. It’s like going back and looking at history.

Todd Wilson — But he said, here’s the thing. I had this angst in 2005. Everything was up and to the right. We were growing. We were doing new campuses. We had started a church planting. Like we’re doing all of the stuff. People are turning to us. They’re looking at what we’re doing. We had started a leadership conference. And I just had this angst that something wasn’t right.

Todd Wilson — And he said, I couldn’t name it. He said, I needed a therapist. But where does a megachurch pastor who’s having nothing but success with up and to the right, who’s feeling angst about the system, where do you go for therapy in that? He’s like, I didn’t know whether to feel like I was being ungrateful or what.

Todd Wilson — And his words were, as you’ve traced the 75 years of the church growth movement and its evolution into a consumer-driven operating system, you have named my angst. I wish I would have had this book in 2005 to name my angst because half the battle is getting our hands around understanding why we’re feeling the way we do.

Rich Birch — Yeah, I was talking to denominational leader within the last year to kind of add a bit more flavor even to that angst, who was saying, and this is a fantastic denomination, you know, Jesus loving, you know, fantastic group of people um and have, you know, very similar what you’re saying, like lots of good things going on.

Rich Birch — And this was one of those like, After dinner conversations, you know, long ah a long ways away from a bunch of leaders, we were just chatting on the sideline. And he said, you know, the interesting thing, when you look at our tribe, his movement, he rattled off all their stats. We have a certain number of churches. We have a certain number of pastors. We have a certain number of, you know, baptisms every year. It rattles all that off.

Rich Birch — And he said, you know, if you were to look at where we were 20 years ago, the number of churches is the same, the number of, and rattled off all these stats that are the same. Like we’re baptizing the same number of people, the attendance is the same, the the like all these things. He said, the only thing that’s gone up in the last 20 years is we’ve doubled our staff head count. There’s twice as many staff today as there was. And when I read, heard about your book and you talk about this angst, I was like, ooh, that’s exactly what he was describing. He’s like, wait a second. what’s happening here. And him as a denominational leader, he had the same read, hey, there’s something wrong with the way we set this thing up.

Rich Birch — So your book, let’s actually dive into a little bit. It starts really at 70 year arc from Donald McGavron from 1955, all the way to today. And so for a leader who’s never really stepped back and thought about the history of like, what, how did we get here? It’s the name of your book. Why does knowing what got us to where we are today, this kind of consumer operating system that you describe, why does, how does understanding that help us as we think about the future?

Todd Wilson — It’s a really good question. And I’m not sure, honestly, that I when I, when I set out to write this book, that, that that was even driving me to begin with, but very quickly that became the, I realized that’s why I need to write this book.

Todd Wilson — So let, let me explain. And I need to give you a little bit of background to explain, because it’s an important question.

Rich Birch — Yep, yep, for sure.

Todd Wilson — So when I think about the moment that, that I realized we had a problem. Like that that, okay, we’re on this trajectory, things are moving the right direction to the 16%, and I’m back in the leadership of Exponential now. And I’m realizing, oh my goodness, we really do have a problem. And here’s here was what that looked like.

Todd Wilson — I believed we had started learning communities and we had very vibrant learning communities And our learning communities got started because we felt like we need to shift the paradigm of people’s measure of success in the scorecard of church. It was very much about we need to shift paradigm. Alan Hirsch was involved with this on how do we shift from just growing large things to growing decentralized things that saturate. And it was very much about scorecard.

Todd Wilson — And if you think about it, we’re wanting to move the needle from 5% to 16%. That’s a scorecard thing. So our initiating event was scorecard. But as we got into these learning communities, which in my opinion were the best things we were doing at Exponential. I mean, they were six to eight month learning journeys and we would rock people’s paradigm.

Todd Wilson — We really would. People would go through it and be like, Oh my goodness, I got to have a different view of success in the church.

Rich Birch — Right. yeah

Todd Wilson — And guess what? They’d go home and Sunday’s coming.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — There’s, services to run, there’s people to pastor, there’s things to do. And the aha moment for me came, Rich, when I realized the the whole definition of insanity, that if you just keep doing the same thing over and over and hope for a different outcome, but that’s insanity. And here I am trying to lead a national organization to see a change in scorecard to move the needle to 16%.

Todd Wilson — And I remember the day that I realized we’re not going to get there with the operating system we have in place in church right now. This operating system is not capable of getting us to the 16% number.

Todd Wilson — That was a personal crisis. I’m leading an organization that’s up and to the right that the needle is moving. But as a futurist, I’m realizing we’re not going to get where we need to be with the operating system in the church. So the the operating system part was what drove me to start writing this book. I’ll let you ask a question there, and then we’ll circle back to the how does it relate to understanding how we got here, though.

Rich Birch — Yeah, so ah just to underline what you’re saying there, um you know in in other conversations, I’ve heard leaders say, you know it’s like, um you know what you know what you reach people with is what you end up keeping them with. And so if what I hear you saying, just putting, I think, other language around it, but correct me, is kind of a consumer-oriented or a consumer cultural operating system that we’ve we’ve used as a church…

Todd Wilson — Right.

Rich Birch — …you know, obviously by definition, if you ah use a um consumption-based model, that doesn’t, leave you it’s very difficult to turn around and say, okay, now become a multiplier. You know, we got you here as a consumer. Okay, now how do we make you a multiplier? Is that the core pain?

Todd Wilson — It is. And Rich, you’re painting the picture of why looking back to understand how we got here is important. If it’s true, that are ah If it’s true, and I want to suggest people ought to go look at it for themselves, that the underlying operating system that has evolved over the last 75 years, it’s not where it started with Donald McGavern in 1955. And there was never bad intentions by any of the good people through the 70 years.

Rich Birch — Yeah, right.

Todd Wilson — We have evolved from what was originally one thing. into a consumer model that is way more focused on success is growing big, success is making converts, not necessarily disciples. And we we can diagnose that if there’s a problem today, and I suggest there is a problem today, then how we got here and understanding how over 70 years, what was intended to be one thing, gradually (like the frog getting boiled in cold water) turned into something else.

Todd Wilson — We’ve got to go through the the, if we really want to change the operating system, and I’ve seen how hard it is, guys can have the paradigm shift. We need to change. Then they go back home into the operating system that they’re operating in. And it is really, really hard to just throw off one operating system and embrace another one

Todd Wilson — And I wouldn’t even encourage people to do that. Don’t go home and just change your operating system overnight. But if you do want to make thoughtful, progressive change, the best way to do it is to start by going back and learn the lesson of how did we get where we are?

Rich Birch — Yeah.

Todd Wilson — How did things get off track to where to where we are?

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s good.

Todd Wilson — And that’s what ended you know, I started out the book really to go after understanding the operating system itself. And very quickly came to the conclusion, oh, we I’m not sure how we’re going to move to a new operating system if people don’t go through the hard work of looking back and understanding how well-intentioned people over time have delivered for us what we have today in a flawed system.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s good. You know, I know, again, from my own personal experience, not to bring this back to me, but to my own personal experience, again, it’s been interesting to see similar patterns. You know, every couple years, there’s like some new idea that comes up in the church. And oftentimes I’m like, yeah, this is just like of rehash of a thing I saw 10 years ago or 15 years ago or 20 years ago.

Rich Birch — It’s like, oh, this is is brand new. It’s like, ah, it’s echoes of things we’ve seen in the past. So why don’t we just kind of give people a flyover or a walkover of the kind of eras that you kind of define as you went through the book, just to give people a high level.

Rich Birch — Ultimately friends, you know, I’m encouraging you to to do two things out of today. One is to pick up, I think this could be a great book for you and your team to go through. You and your leadership team, buy copies of this, read it. I think it could be an interesting book for you or, and go and listen to Todd’s interview with Carey as well. Carey just takes longer in his podcast and has more time. So there’s going to be, there’s lots packed into that as well.

Rich Birch — But why don’t you kind of give us a flyover of the eras? And then maybe when you think about each one of those, something that was like, really positive that came from that area something like hey there’s something good there or maybe there’s something there that we’ve got to be cautious about as we think about the future.

Todd Wilson — Yeah. And just to be clear, Rich, you know this, ah I’m a local church guy. My calling is a local church. I’m still on staff at a local church. I love the local church. So this part of the, difficulty for me in spending two years and over a hundred hours of interviews and putting this timeline of history together is I love the church.

Todd Wilson — And I I, don’t know that I’d be sitting here talking to you if it weren’t for several of these eras I’m getting ready to name to you. So you’ve got really, I think a common thread through across these areas as we jump into them is typically apostolic, evangelistically driven leaders who really want to reach people. Hell is real. Lost people are going there. We got to reach them. And I think that’s the driving factor across all these eras is well-intentioned people…

Todd Wilson — And if I can start with the end point, I think we’ve sort of co-opted the more holistic disciple-making growth engine that’s capable of generational disciple-making with strategies for institutional programmatic growth that are not capable of reproduction. They’re very good at growing large things and reaching lots of people, but not necessarily making, you know, through relational disciple making, disciples who make disciples who plant churches that plant churches.

Todd Wilson — So here’s how I would do the flyover. When I got started writing this history, I thought I was doing one chapter of this history in another book.

Rich Birch — I love it.

Todd Wilson — And one chapter turned into two chapters and three chapters. And eventually my editor said, Todd, you just need to do a full book.

Rich Birch — Well, that’s a book.

Todd Wilson — And it ends up turning into the longest book I’ve written because of the 75 year history. And ah Rich, seriously, don’t, people don’t need to feel bad if they don’t know all the history. I, I’m like a where’s Waldo through a lot of this history. I’ve had a seat at the table for a lot of the stuff through these eras.

Todd Wilson — Until writing this book, I did not know how all the dots connected across these eras. And then it became there were so many, oh, oh, oh. So here’s here’s the shot I’ll give to you. Ididn’t really I knew I had heard of Donald McGavern. I knew he was considered the father of the modern church growth movement. I’ve never, prior to writing this book, read about him, gone off and studied him. Gary McIntosh is his by is Donald McGavern’s biographer. So I spent a lot of time with Gary. He pointed me in the right directions.

Todd Wilson — And here’s what I learned. Donald McGavern, born in the late 1800s, international missionary in India. um His father and mother were missionaries in India. He came from the mission field and his context was the international mission field.

Todd Wilson — Now, get this as the starting point in 1955. He’s an international missionary. He has planted 15 churches himself in his career, none of which ever grew to more than 100 people. So you got to let that sink in. The father of the modern church growth movement planted 15 churches, none of which grew to more than 100. And yet he’s the father of what we consider now the modern church growth movement.

Rich Birch — Right. Interesting.

Todd Wilson — So the kind the context was, he became fascinated after reading a research report on why some churches in provinces in India were growing and others weren’t. Sometimes churches in the same village that were growing and just down the street, others weren’t.

Todd Wilson — So he kind of took a scientific approach, the study of church growth. Like let’s study this like it’s a science, like what’s causing some churches to grow. And he he had very clear conclusions out of that, but you know, a handful of conclusions of what’s causing that.

Todd Wilson — And so ultimately, when he came off the mission field by 1960, 61, he started the Church Growth Institute, not for U.S. pastors, but for international missionaries who were on furlough to come home and learn about church growth principles that they could take back to the international mission field. He had no interest in U.S. pastors.

Todd Wilson — So for multiple years in the 60s, he was doing that. And when Fuller wanted to start their International School of World Missions, one of their best faculty member ratings was Donald McGavern. So they invited him to come become the founding dean of the the Fuller School of World Missions.

Todd Wilson — But he only agreed to do it if he could bring the Church Growth Institute with him. So by 1970, you’ve got that up and running. He’s built his team. He invited a guy called C. Peter Wagner off the mission field to come be on his faculty staff. And in 1970, 71, Peter Wagner convinced Donald McGavern that they ought to run one class for U.S. pastors on church growth.

Todd Wilson — And the rest is history. That one class, it just turned into, Imean, people were very interested in it. Denominations became interested. And literally within a couple of years, you’ve got this up and to the right people latching on to church growth science.

Todd Wilson — And that starts the process, you know. Even from the beginning, you start to see a little bit of co-opting away from McGavern’s things. Not fast, but a little bit.

Todd Wilson — So right on the heels of that, in the 70s then, you’ve got this young kid, ah Bill Hybels…

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — …who’s running you know going to go into business and he’s running a street ministry with youth. He’s being mentored by Robert Shuler.

Rich Birch — Yes.

Todd Wilson — And Shuler’s got the possibility thinking, think outside the box, very apostolic. Turns out Shuler not only mentors Hybels, but there’s some mentoring of Rick Warren. And so you’ve got the birth of the seeker-sensitive era then.

Todd Wilson — You know, if the first era was the McGavern-Roots era, now we’ve got the seeker-sensitive era. And, you know, that can be a positive or a negative stigma. For me, in 1976, I’m in middle school going into high school, not a Christian, live down the street from this movie theater called the Willow Creek Movie Theater.

Rich Birch — Right. Right.

Todd Wilson — And my mom drags us kicking and screaming into the Willow Creek Movie Theater. We were the avatar family for the Seeker Sensitive family movement.

Rich Birch — Right. Movement.

Todd Wilson — From Seeker Sensitive, you get out of that the what Peter Drucker and Bob Buford would call the large church phenomena and the birth of Leadership Network then with the large church phenomena, which became the megachurch phenomena.

Todd Wilson — You’ve got Rick Warren and his masterful work with the purpose-driven church. Rick’s able to put handles on this church growth part, but Rick was a disciple of Donald McGavern, so he’s got the McGavern roots.

Todd Wilson — You’ve got Hybels with the Shuler roots. And in that 80 into the 90s with the birth of the Global Leadership Summit and the other, you’ve you’ve got this very influential large church phenomena, purpose-driven, being shaped by, you know, in large part, the combination of Leadership Network, Hybels, Rick Warren… And that brings us up to you know about 2000.

Todd Wilson — And just as a flyover, I would then call the era of the externally focused church. You’ve got the rapid fire birth of church planting networks. You’ve got multi-site. People don’t realize prior to 2000, there’s less than 50 multi-site churches.

Rich Birch — Yeah.

Todd Wilson — Leadership Network engages it in 2000. And from 2000 to 2010 you see an up, I mean, radically up and to the right.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — The externally focused church, same thing. Rick Russo has book right in that time period. The missional guys, right in that time period. So the common theme between these church planning networks, the missional guys, the externally focused guys, the multi-site, is we’re now looking outside of ourselves.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — But in large part, we’re still looking outside of ourselves as growth strategies for our things. If you really go look under the hood of a lot of those.

Todd Wilson — And then I would say coming out of the externally or outwardly focused era, 2015 to 2025, I just have no other name than the disruption era. As I was doing the research on this book, um I had to stop at like 12 major disruptions that happened in that time period with COVID right in the middle.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — And so that’s the…

Rich Birch — Political upheaval. There’s a bunch in there in that same, you know, yeah, that there’s been a schism.

Todd Wilson — You’ve got deconstruction of faith.

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — You’ve got cynicism. You’ve got platformed individualism with the birth of social media. Now anybody can be their own, you know, playlist influencer. There’s just so many disruptive factors in there.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — Now you look at all those disruptive factors with the evolution of what’s happening in the church and the church operating system. And it leaves us on a very shaky foundation at that point that, you know It kind of brings us up to where we are now, and you can either be a pessimist at that or an optimist. And I choose the optimist path that we’re poised for a new day and a new operating system is my prayer.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s amazing. And friends, as you can see, you just got a real thin slice of, you know, just all the various phases that you do such a great job unpacking for us to help us really understand how we we got here. It was It was wild, it’s wild thinking about a lot of that because I remember, you know, various phases of those over the last particularly 25 years, you know, seeing that up close and seeing, you know, kind of the impact that has had and then wondering about the future and where we go from here.

Rich Birch — So thinking about the future and, you know, obviously you’ve, um you know, you’ve you’re making a clear clarion call around, hey, we’ve got to think differently than the consumer driven operating system. We’ve got to we’ve got to come up with something different. After all of that, um and we’ve kind of covered this already, but I’d love to make sure we kind of hone on this, have this resonate with people that are listening in. Why is it so difficult for that system, for the consumer-driven operating system to to really ultimately produce healthy reproduction and multiplication and in churches? What’s structurally ah broken about it? And what what would be some first steps we should be thinking about change to the future as we think about, okay, where we go from here?

Todd Wilson — Yeah.

Rich Birch — How do we, you know, build on the positive stuff, but also look for something different as we look to the future?

Todd Wilson — Yeah. I think we don’t have to make it complex, Rich, if we just keep trying to come back to simplicity for a minute. Like the system that has evolved has actually become pretty complex when you think about it. I would say if we could just focus on, I’m not even going to say changing overnight, but if if I’m a lead pastor, if I’m on staff at a church, I’m really focused on disciple-making as the core mission and growth engine of the church.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — Like what is it, most churches are going to say our mission is disciple making or it’s going to be part of it. They’re going to say we have a culture of disciple making, but it is not what the data shows.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — You know, again, 95% of churches do not have a culture of disciple-making. They have a culture of program activity.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — And so I’m not an advocate of changing everything overnight, but if you want to shift from a culture of program activity to a true culture of disciple-making‚ it has to start with the lead minister having a simple, reproducible, in-practice disciple-making approach that is being modeled for the… I don’t mean discipling the staff. I mean there’s people the lead pastor are personally discipling, modeling that simple, reproducible process.

Todd Wilson — Where we’re starting to see traction and where I think the breakthroughs are going to come in getting us to the new operating system of the future, it is going to start, and it’s it’s happening right now, with pastors who say, you know, if I’m really honest, I’ve been preaching the last 52 weeks. I’ve been leading meetings. I’ve been doing, I’ve been doing, I’ve done, but I’m not really personally making disciples.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — And I think it’s going to start with the lead pastor, the elders, senior people saying, If we could only have one metric of success in the next 12 months, it’s not growth, it’s not the activities we do, it’s not the new building. If we only have one measure of success, it’s how many disciples have I personally, relationally been involved in? me Not how many have I preached to, not how many outreach events have we done where we’ve got, but what have I personally done on the disciple-making front?

Todd Wilson — And I don’t want to make it more complicated than that. That’s what we’re missing right now.

Rich Birch — That’s good. No, that’s really good. Yeah, that’s good. I love the practical takeaway of, um yeah, it’s like, who are the three people in your life that you’re actually discipling? Let’s start there.

Rich Birch — So this is kind of a sidebar to it.

Todd Wilson — Can I just look real quick?

Rich Birch — Yes. Yep. Push back. Yep.

Todd Wilson — So David Putman, who’s part of what we do at Multipliers, David’s longtime kingdom guy.

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — You should have him on as an interview here. David is completely focused on what he calls the 5-3-2 right now. Five simple reproducible principles, three rhythms, and and two relationships. So it’s a triad of three people that just keeps reproducing.

Todd Wilson — Anybody can do it. A ninth grader can do it. A lead pastor can do it. I’m watching this model take different groups by storm right now. And whether you embrace the 5-3-2 or some other model like it, the key is going to be having a simple, reproducible process that works for the lead pastor and anyone else in the church. Same model.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s good. Yeah we had David on back in 2020 and I’m like we got to get him back on uh the podcast.

Rich Birch — So sidebar issue, so this is not something we’d you know kicked around ahead of time but it’s kind of adjacent to this. So I am not a I’m not a teaching pastor. Similar to you. I’m not, i never saw myself as a lead pastor. I’ve always been in the like, Hey, my job’s to be in the second chair, cheering for other lead pastors. I’ve worked for um really over my career as an XP three incredible communicator lead pastors who it would appear like, and it is, they, all three of them, God gifted them with this ability to speak and gather crowds. Like that was like core. And, and I, I’ve spent a lot of time like listening to them and watching them. And part of it just appears to be like, it’s definitely a gifting that’s going on there.

Rich Birch — And I, over time, ah questions like the following would come up that I would I’d struggle with, where it’s like, it would appear like this person can gather a lot of people, and we can build more chairs in front of that person and people will hear that person and they’ll they’ll take steps towards Jesus.

Rich Birch — And I understand that that’s not, or that’s not a full picture of discipleship. That’s one piece of the discipleship puzzle, but it’s not… And the the kind of organizational pressure is, okay, let’s keep figuring out how to build more seats in front of this person and and their gift. How do we get them to leverage their gift well?

Rich Birch — And to be honest, I’ve been in conversations where I’ve been the voice of like, I want to line 100,000 people up in front of this person to hear this person speak because I think the way they talk about Jesus is different than what I’ve heard other people say and it it’ll make a difference.

Rich Birch — That is, I think, at the center of this tension that there’s some there seems to be something about the gift of teaching that it’s not, I don’t know whether it’s not evenly distributed, or there’s like a brokenness in humanity and we only want to listen to certain kinds of people. I don’t know whether it’s one of those two things. So all I’ve done is describe a problem and I’m going to say, comment on it, Todd.

Todd Wilson — Yeah. I think you’re right on the mark. I think I want to affirm that, you know, I mean, everybody has their definitions. I believe the preaching role is, and and the teaching and reaching is a piece of the discipleship equation.

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — I think if I’m defining the problem statement, We have made it the biggest piece…

Rich Birch — Sure.

Todd Wilson — …instead of a piece or a playing a role in it. So I think the issue is that how big we’ve made it. Like you, I was an executive pastor for years. And when I look back on that time, my role was not about holistic relational disciple making that could be the growth engine of the church. and it It was how do we get as many people in seats in the auditorium on Sunday? We need great marketing. We need great outreach.

Todd Wilson — And again, I think all of those play a role in the disciple-making process ultimately. But let’s just be honest, that’s not disciple-making itself. It plays a role in the disciple-making process.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — So the elephant in the room here is, how do we scale disciple-making? If I if I could be If I could be the czar of this, I’m not, but if I could be, I want the genius at the end. I want the unique gifts that are represented across the whole mosaic and the church, starting with that dynamic creature that can attract the crowd. I want it.

Todd Wilson — But I also want those senior leaders of the organization I really want to be focused on what is our growth engine and what is our holistic disciple-making process.

Rich Birch — Right.

Todd Wilson — And the number one thing I want from those senior leaders is not their unique gift. I want their modeling, their personal modeling of the simple, reproducible, disciple-making growth engine that anybody in the church can do.

Rich Birch — That’s good.

Todd Wilson — I mean, that that preaching gift you’re talking about, that that one lead pastor can do, how many other people in the church can do that?

Rich Birch — Right. Not many. Yep.

Todd Wilson — So there’s their paradigm. So we need them doing it.

Rich Birch — Yes.

Todd Wilson — But I would argue what we need them doing even more than that inspiration is modeling the simple reproducible disciple making thing that people know that’s how we’re going to win here.

Rich Birch — Yeah. Well, and I’ve that lines up, I’ve said it at probably, well, not a thousand times, but hundreds of times with lead pastors over the years that in the context of this conversation, I would rather them weave in the discussion about their discipleship relationships as like just a normative part of conversation rather than the, we’re doing six weeks on discipleship and how to become disciple making. I’m like, if you just pepper that stuff in week in, week out, it just is a normative part of the conversation that changes culture.

Rich Birch — The kind of like, we’re going to make it a program. We’re going to brand it. We’ve got a great name on it. And my experience has been, it’s it’s a little bit like nailing jello to the wall. There’s there’s actually some of that containing of what we’re talking about actually kills the exact thing that we’re trying to do. And so, man, I think there’s a real tension there. And how do we help those people?

Rich Birch — Because it’s not like we want them to do a worse job. It’s not like, hey, if you could stop talking in a way that attracts a crowd, that’s not the answer. But we’ve got to, like you say, how do we move them into those personal relationships? That’s fantastic.

Rich Birch — Well, this has been a great conversation…

Todd Wilson — My question would be, Rich, what what would happen…

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — …if an average lead pastor went on a one-year journey to to of disciple-making themselves? Call it a triad, call it four, five. They’re always, over the next year, going to be in a disciple-making small micro group…

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — …and all of their preaching is going to be informed.

Rich Birch — Yep.

Todd Wilson — That’s their laboratory of learning.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s their paradigm. Yeah, that’s good.

Todd Wilson — That’s their paradigm. And now they’re bringing it to life, not just as periodic examples, but, you know, my whole frame of reference of my library is what comes out of that experience.

Rich Birch — Yeah.

Todd Wilson — And our problem right now is that’s just lack. It isn’t that it’s inserted a little bit. It’s just lacking.

Rich Birch — Right. Yeah, that’s good. Yeah, this has been great. what ah What a great conversation. And as you can tell, friends, there’s a lot we could talk about there. And a lot you know just there’s a rich conversation that could be had around this.

Rich Birch — Let’s let’s pivot and kind of talk a little bit about the book specifically. i want to make sure people pick up copies of this. Again, the name of it is How Did We Get Here? Looking Back to Look Forward. People can get this on Amazon. Are there other places that you would send people if they want to pick up copies of this?

Todd Wilson — Yeah. So if they go to church-growth.org, church-growth.org, that’s the book’s homepage. You can actually get the free PDF there. You can get the free audio version there. There’s a full wiki there that people can contribute to. What you kind of mentioned it in passing, but I’ll highlight, it is impossible to read this book and not see yourself in it.

Rich Birch — Yes. Yeah.

Todd Wilson — Anyone who’s been a Christian for a while, they, the editor of the book said the power of this is going to be, she said, I can tell you the page in the book that I entered the story.

Rich Birch — Yeah, that’s great.

Todd Wilson — So you’ve got the free PDF, the free audio, the wiki, and then for people that just want the paper versions, you can get it on Amazon.


Rich Birch — That’s great. And we’ll link to that friends so that you can, you know, find that quickly in the show notes and, and friends, I would encourage you again, to me, I think this could be a great resource to do with your leadership team, as I mentioned earlier. It would be a great kind of conversation starter and really context setter for us to think through these issues as we think about the future.

Rich Birch — So kind of as we, as we come to close up today’s conversation, any final words as we wrap up today?

Todd Wilson — Rich, I just appreciate the work you’re doing. I want to be an encouragement to pastors. Don’t let this book be, it’s not a deconstruction book. It’s not, oh my goodness, the church has fallen apart.

Rich Birch — No, yeah.

Todd Wilson — We need to keep plugging away doing what we’re doing, but we also have to have an eye on the future that this operating system that has evolved, everything has a beginning and an end. And this operating system, I believe, is in its final days. I think we’re we’re seeing you know less and less effectiveness with it. And I think we just need to be in a posture of giving permission to the next generations to do some trial and error and experimentation and not be locked into the paradigm of the of the past inheriting previous things.

Rich Birch — No, fantastic, Todd. I appreciate you being here. And I would echo that, you know, you’re you’re the kind of leader that’s in our corner trying to help us get better. And so I appreciate the voice that you’ve had for for decades. And so I really appreciate that.

Rich Birch — If people want to track with you, get connected, follow along with Multipliers where do we want to send them online?

Todd Wilson — Multipliers.org can get me to all the different ways from email to phone to social media. So multipliers.org.

Rich Birch — That’s great. Thanks so much, Todd. Appreciate you being here, sir.

Todd Wilson — Thank you, Rich. Appreciate it.